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Forwards

Locking in Future Prices

A forward contract is a private agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a specified price on a future date. Think of it as a handshake deal, but legally binding, made directly between two parties without an exchange. This is why they are known as over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives.

Over-the-counter (OTC)

adjective

A market where financial instruments like stocks, bonds, or derivatives are traded directly between two parties, rather than through a centralised exchange.

Because they are private, the terms of a forward contract are completely customisable. The two parties must negotiate and agree on the specifics, including:

  • The asset: What is being bought or sold (e.g., barrels of oil, bushels of wheat, euros).
  • The quantity: How much of the asset is involved.
  • The price: The agreed-upon price for the future transaction, known as the forward price.
  • The date: The specific date on which the transaction will occur, known as the settlement or delivery date.
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This ability to tailor the contract to precise needs is their biggest advantage. Businesses use them primarily for hedging—a strategy to protect against the risk of unwanted price movements.

Hedging with Forwards

Imagine a wheat farmer who expects to harvest 10,000 bushels in three months. The current price is good, but she's worried it might fall by harvest time. At the same time, a large bakery needs to buy 10,000 bushels of wheat in three months and is worried the price might rise.

They can enter into a forward contract with each other. They agree that in three months, the farmer will sell 10,000 bushels of wheat to the bakery at a price they lock in today. By doing this, both have eliminated their price uncertainty. The farmer knows exactly how much she'll be paid, and the bakery knows exactly how much it will pay.

PartyRisk without a ForwardOutcome with a Forward
FarmerWheat price could fall, reducing profit.Guarantees a specific selling price for the harvest.
BakeryWheat price could rise, increasing costs.Locks in a specific purchase price for its main ingredient.

The same principle applies to foreign currency. An Australian company has to pay a US supplier $1 million in six months. If the Australian dollar (AUD) weakens against the US dollar (USD) over that period, the payment will cost more in AUD terms.

To hedge this risk, the Australian company can enter into a forward contract with a bank to buy $1 million in six months at a fixed AUD/USD exchange rate. Now, no matter what happens in the currency market, the company knows exactly how many Australian dollars it will need to settle its bill.

Flexibility vs Risk

The main benefit of a forward contract is its flexibility. Since it's a private deal, the parties can customise the asset, amount, and date to match their exact needs. This is different from futures contracts, which are standardised and traded on an exchange.

Disclose contract specifics: Clearly outline terms, duration, renewal options, and contingencies to provide context and reduce ambiguity.

However, this flexibility comes with a significant drawback: counterparty risk.

Counterparty risk

noun

The risk that the other party in a financial contract will not fulfill their side of the agreement.

Because forwards are private agreements, there's no central clearinghouse to guarantee the deal. If the price of wheat plummets, the farmer is still obligated to sell at the higher, pre-agreed price. But the bakery might be tempted to default on the contract and buy cheaper wheat on the open market. The farmer would then have to sue to enforce the contract.

Forwards can also be illiquid. If you want to get out of your position before the settlement date, it can be difficult to find someone else to take over your side of the bespoke contract.

Quiz Questions 1/5

What is the primary reason a business, such as a wheat farmer or an importer, would enter into a forward contract?

Quiz Questions 2/5

Forward contracts are private agreements, which means they are not traded on a centralised exchange.

Forwards offer a powerful way to manage price risk, but they require careful consideration of the trade-offs between customisation and counterparty exposure.