Mastering Discounted Cash Flows
Time Value of Money
Why a Dollar Today Is Worth More
Would you rather have $100 today or $100 a year from now? Almost everyone would choose to get the money today. It feels better to have it now, but there's a solid financial reason for this preference. It's called the time value of money, a core principle in finance.
The idea is simple: money available to you right now is worth more than the same amount in the future. This isn't just a feeling; it's a fact based on two key factors.
First, there's opportunity cost. If you have money today, you can invest it and earn a return. That 💲100 could be put into a savings account or the stock market, growing into, say, 💲105 over the next year. By waiting a year for the 💲100, you miss out on that potential 💲5 gain.
Second, there's inflation. Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. The $100 you have today can buy more coffee, gas, or groceries than the same $100 will be able to buy a year from now, after prices have likely increased.
These two forces, opportunity cost and inflation, are why a dollar today is more powerful than a dollar tomorrow. Understanding how to measure this difference in value is what lets us make smart financial decisions.
Looking Ahead With Future Value
If money today is worth more, how much more will it be worth in the future? We can calculate this using the concept of Future Value (FV). Future value tells you what an amount of money you have today will grow into by a specific date in the future, assuming it earns a certain interest rate.
Let's say you invest $1,000 today in an account that pays 5% interest per year. After one year, your investment will have grown. The calculation is straightforward: you earn 5% of $1,000, which is $50. So, your total is $1,050. The formula for this is:
| Variable | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Future Value | |
| Present Value (the initial amount) | |
| Interest rate per period | |
| Number of periods |
Using our example, the future value of your $1,000 after one year at a 5% interest rate is:
If you leave the money for two years, the interest compounds. In the second year, you earn 5% on the new total of $1,050, not just the original $1,000. This is the power of compounding.
Working Backward With Present Value
Just as we can project money forward, we can also bring its future value back to today. This is called Present Value (PV), and the process is known as discounting.
Present value answers the question: How much money would I need to invest today to have a specific amount in the future? This is incredibly useful for valuing investments. If an investment promises to pay you $1,000 in one year, what is that promise worth to you today?
To find out, we just rearrange the future value formula:
The variable is now called the discount rate. It represents the return you could get on an alternative investment with similar risk. It's essentially the opportunity cost we talked about earlier.
Imagine you are promised $1,000 in one year, and you believe you could earn a 5% return elsewhere. The present value of that future $1,000 is:
This means that $1,000 received one year from now is worth the same as receiving $952.38 today, assuming a 5% discount rate. If someone offered you less than $952.38 for that future payment, you'd be better off waiting. This is the logic that underpins Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, which uses present value to determine the worth of a business.
According to the principle of the time value of money, why is a dollar today worth more than a dollar in the future?
If you invest $500 in an account that earns a 4% annual interest rate, what will its Future Value (FV) be after one year?
Mastering these concepts is the first step toward making informed financial valuations.
