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Non-Discounted Appraisal Methods

Quick Screening Tools

When evaluating potential investments, sometimes you need a quick filter, not a deep analysis. Non-discounted appraisal methods provide just that. They are simple, back-of-the-napkin calculations that help screen out obviously poor projects before they consume more analytical resources. Their main weakness is that they ignore the time value of money, but their strength lies in their speed and simplicity. We'll look at two of the most common methods: the Payback Period and the Accounting Rate of Return.

The Payback Period

The Payback Period answers one straightforward question: How long will it take to get my initial investment back? It's a measure of risk and liquidity, not profitability. A shorter payback period means your capital is tied up for less time, reducing the risk that market conditions or technology could change and render the project obsolete before it has paid for itself.

A project with a shorter payback period is generally preferred because it exposes the company to less long-term risk.

For projects with consistent, even cash inflows each year, the calculation is simple division.

Payback Period=Initial InvestmentAnnual Cash Inflow\text{Payback Period} = \frac{\text{Initial Investment}}{\text{Annual Cash Inflow}}

For example, a $500,000 investment in a new machine that generates $125,000 in cash savings annually has a payback period of 4 years. The real world, however, is rarely so neat. Most projects generate uneven cash flows, requiring a cumulative approach to find the payback point.

YearAnnual Cash FlowCumulative Cash Flow
0($200,000)($200,000)
1$60,000($140,000)
2$80,000($60,000)
3$90,000$30,000
4$50,000$80,000

In the table above, the initial $200,000 is paid back sometime during Year 3. At the end of Year 2, $60,000 is still unrecovered. The project generates $90,000 during Year 3. Assuming cash flows are even throughout the year, we can find the exact point of payback.

Payback Period=2 years+$60,000$90,000=2.67 years\text{Payback Period} = 2 \text{ years} + \frac{\$60,000}{\$90,000} = 2.67 \text{ years}

Accounting Rate of Return

While the Payback Period focuses on cash and time, the (ARR) uses accounting profits from the income statement to measure a project's profitability relative to the investment size. It's expressed as a percentage, making it easy to compare against a company's target rate of return. Unlike payback, it considers the project's entire life, but it still ignores the time value of money.

ARR=Average Annual ProfitAverage Investment\text{ARR} = \frac{\text{Average Annual Profit}}{\text{Average Investment}}

The numerator, Average Annual Profit, is the total net income the project is expected to generate over its life, divided by the number of years. Remember to subtract annual depreciation from revenue to get the accounting profit.

The denominator can be calculated in two ways. Using the initial investment is simpler. However, using the average investment is more common and often more accurate, as it accounts for the fact that the book value of the asset declines over time due to depreciation.

Average Investment=Initial Investment+Salvage Value2\text{Average Investment} = \frac{\text{Initial Investment} + \text{Salvage Value}}{2}

Let's say a project requires an initial investment of 💲400,000 and is expected to have a salvage value of 💲40,000 after 5 years. Over its life, it will generate an average annual profit of 💲50,000.

Average Investment = (💲400,000 + 💲40,000) / 2 = 💲220,000. ARR = 💲50,000 / 💲220,000 = 22.7%.

Screening vs Ranking

Payback Period and ARR are best used as initial screening tools. A company might set a policy that all projects must have a payback period of under five years or an ARR of at least 15%. Any project that doesn't meet these minimum thresholds is rejected immediately.

However, these methods are less effective for ranking competing projects. Why? Because they completely ignore the time value of money. A project that pays back in 3 years but generates no cash afterward could look better than a project that pays back in 4 years but generates massive cash flows for 10 years after that. For final, nuanced decisions, discounted methods like (NPV) are far superior.

Think of them as the first cut. They quickly and easily weed out the non-starters, allowing you to focus your more intensive analytical efforts on the projects that have a real chance of creating value.

Quiz Questions 1/5

What is the primary weakness of non-discounted appraisal methods like the Payback Period and the Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)?

Quiz Questions 2/5

A company invests $300,000 in a project. It generates cash inflows of $80,000 in Year 1, $120,000 in Year 2, and $150,000 in Year 3. When does the project pay back the initial investment?